03 · Orbit States
Seven states. Computed, not judged.
Each item's state comes from its altitude ratio, two integrity checks and one recovery test. Because the rule is written down, the number makes the call and nobody has to argue for a color.
“No gravity is applied.”
The item has no target date, so it moves purely with flow. It is not on track. It is unanchored.
Lift: none yet. Give it gravity or accept that it is uncommitted.
“We’re landing ahead of gravity.”
Glide is comfortably ahead of the gravity target, with positive buffer. This is the best case.
Lift: none.
“Glide and gravity are aligned.”
Predicted and required dates match closely. Execution is stable and predictable.
Lift: none.
“Glide is starting to slip past gravity.”
Early signs of delay that are still recoverable with normal adjustments. It needs attention but not escalation.
Lift: light. Re-prioritize, reduce work in progress, clear small blockers.
“Glide has missed gravity.”
The item cannot meet its date on the current trajectory and will likely affect downstream work. Recovery is still possible, but it takes intervention.
Lift: moderate. Add capacity, re-sequence dependencies, fast-track critical work.
“The model itself is inconsistent.”
Dependencies, timelines or constraints don't reconcile, so the schedule output can't be trusted. This is not a delivery problem. It is a problem with trust in the plan.
Lift: diagnostic. Fix dependencies, reconcile timelines, validate assumptions, then act.
“The system cannot recover without changing the plan.”
Constraints, dependencies or capacity make the current plan infeasible. This is a decision point, not just a delay.
Lift: structural. Re-baseline, de-scope, redesign, restructure. Leadership must decide.
Thresholds
Where each color starts.
The bands are set on the altitude ratio: altitude divided by runway. Every band is at least 2 working days wide, so near-term work doesn't flip color over a single day.
Recovery test · Red becomes Black
Re-run glide assuming the strongest moderate Lift that is realistically available:
- Capacity added where the critical path runs
- Dependencies re-sequenced to start the critical path earliest
- Floating work moved behind it
If glide still lands after gravity, the item is Black. Only changing the plan will fix it.
Integrity checks · Purple overrides everything
- A dependency cycle exists
- A task on a gravity path has no estimate or owner
- Backward scheduling puts a gravity date in the past for work not yet started
- Fixed gravity points conflict: a predecessor's fixed date is later than its successor's
- Task data hasn't been updated since the last Downlink
Drift trend
A color is a snapshot. Trend is the direction of travel.
A Green item losing three days of altitude every week is in more danger than an Amber item holding steady. Trend is the change in altitude since the last Downlink, normally one week.
| Symbol | Trend | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| ▲ | Climbing | Altitude gained 1 working day or more |
| ▶ | Level | Altitude changed by less than 1 working day |
| ▼ | Descending | Altitude lost 1 working day or more |
| ⏬ | Falling | Altitude lost faster than 10% of runway per week |
Time to impact
Impact=Altitude÷Loss per week
It turns “it's slipping” into “at this rate, it misses in three weeks.”
Always report both
Captured ▼ −3d/wk, impact in 2 wks
Rule: any item whose time to impact is shorter than its runway is reported in Downlink, whatever its color.
Simulator
Try an item.
Move the sliders to see which state and trend an item gets, and what to do about it.